Our huge greenfield project is far reaching and complex – a new port at Jervis Inlet to replace much of the Port of Vancouver, including eliminating the plan for Terminal 2 at Roberts Bank. There are five parts to our project.
- St. Vincent Bay, where the main port activity will be located on approximately 2400 shore side hectares offering 24 kms of moorage, as compared to Vancouver’s 1000 hectares of land and 14 kms of moorage.
- Vancouver Bay, where the first expansion will be made on an estimated additional 9 acres of shore side land and 3.5 kms of moorage.
- Mt. Foley and Goliath Bay, where aggregate will be mined for the next 20 or thirty years until ultimately a second expansion can take place, providing an additional 2000 shore side hectares and at least nine kms of moorage
- Rail and highway access, from the BC interior and Highway 99, to the port. This access requires a major suspension bridge across Jervis Inlet.
- Rail marshalling yards in the vicinity of Ashcroft.
To be eligible for funding, we must meet the “objectives of the continuous call” of the National Trade Corridor Fund (NTCF). Our project improves the fluidity (efficiency) and performance of the transportation system as described in our overview statement here, as detailed and quantified in “Our port” here.
We have identified capital cost offsets of $35 billion, over three times the estimated capital cost of the project, currently estimated at $10 billion.
Additionally, we have begun to tabulate large annual operating cost savings and efficiencies in the supply chain. These tabulations will continue in the two main sections of this website, but first a project summary.
The rail and highway access is in sections:
Ashcroft to Lillooet – Beginning in the vicinity of Ashcroft Terminals, where the CN, CP and Trans Canada Highway converge, proceed on existing adequate Highway (#1, #97 and #99) to Lillooet.
Build new rail to Pavilion on a route generally in line with the above highways. At Pavillion join the existing CN line.
From Lillooet, on existing rail and highway, proceed through Pemberton and Whistler to the East Gate of the proposed corridor. Both this rail and highway segment may require some upgrading. We are working with senior CN personnel to identify the major issues
From the East Gate of the corridor, ascend the Squamish and Ashlu Rivers and, as appropriate, tunnel the summit and descend the Vancouver River to Vancouver Bay and Jervis Inlet.
Bridge Jervis inlet. Continue with rail and highway on the west side of Hotham Sound to St. Vincent Bay and the main port facility.
Complete the highway to Saltery Bay and the schools, medical facilities and urban amenities of Powell River.
To put the project into a financial framework, we have prepared a summary projection for the several stages going forward.
Initial funding. The founders are the members of the first Board of Directors. They contributed $6400 to fund the costs of incorporation, website development and modest travel and incidental costs. The directors are all volunteers. This funding is expected to be adequate until we have submitted our expression of interest to the NTCF in April of 2020.
If we are asked to submit a Comprehensive Business Proposal, the second stage of the application process, we shall make a second offering estimated to be $150,000 to cover costs to be incurred until the proposal is submitted in October 2020. Those costs will cover travel and costs incidental to dealing with First Nations, NTCF, matching grants, management transitions, promotion of stakeholders and some compensation.
We anticipate that these funds will be raised from:
- First Nations: $37,500 (25%)
- Other stakeholders: $75,000 (50%)
- Other investors: $37,500 (25%)
This issue will be done at an increasing issue price to minimize the ultimate future dilution as we move forward.
If our proposal is successful and we are awarded a grant to conduct Class D engineering studies and environmental assessments we will need to fund the next years operations and the period following the studies when evaluations will be made regarding next steps. These discussions will not be undertaken lightly. Our estimate is that the next layer of study will cost about $300 million.
However, investors will not spend that substantial an amount without the intention of moving ahead, provided additional research is positive. And the road ahead is very costly. Preliminary estimates are:
|Class C studies ( 3 years)||300 million|
|Class B studies||400 million|
|Class A studies||200 million|
|-Total equity financing required||4,900 million|
|D studies||100 million|
|Total per original estimates||1||10,000 million|
- The planning is expected to require. The first stage of that planning is an environmental impact assessment and an engineering study of the feasibility and estimated cost of the project. The first phase (Class D) of these studies is expected to cost $100 million and require about one year. Our application to the NTCF is to fund 50% of that cost.
- Advancing to final studies will follow depending on the out come of the Class D studies. We have initiated discussions at high levels with several key stakeholders. We will advance and broaden those discussions when we are asked to submit a Comprehensive Business Proposal in accordance with NTCF’s application process. We anticipate about six months to prepare the proposal and if successful, about one year to complete the Class D studies.
- Our discussions to date with key stakeholders have been well received. During the six months or so that the business proposal will require we will quantify and rank the enthusiasm of stakeholders and evaluate their true interest in Jervis Ports.
- Major assessments will be made based on the findings of the Class D studies. The next step will be the funding of Class C studies. To move forward will require funding by these stakeholders of an amount currently estimated at $300 million, and that is only the next step.
- The studies, in total, will require about $900 million from the industry over four years then construction funding over three years. We need to provide for these challenges and move towards building a professional management team
- The summary financial projection is a work in progress that will be continuously updated as our proposal is advanced
To be eligible for funding we must meet at least one of the two “objectives of the continuous call” of the NTCF. We do that in spades!
Major bottlenecks or “supply chain inefficiencies” occur in today’s transportation corridors. In most cases they have been around for years – decades – and they are getting worse and more expensive to resolve.
A basic premise underlying the measurement of the cost of these bottlenecks is the capital cost intensity of transportation equipment – it’s all hugely expensive – ships waiting for cargo or berthing space; railcars travelling one way empty; locomotives pulling them – these inefficiencies cut economic returns by high percentages and is only recovered through higher freight costs for exporters and importers alike.
It’s time to identify and measure these bottlenecks – at least the biggest of them:
- The Port of Vancouver has berthing space of 1.4 km in total. Jervis Ports estimates almost double that – and that is just at St. Vincent Bay. But, that’s not all! Efficiencies at Jervis will enable faster offload and/or reload times with the impact that ships will require less time at berth, effectively doubling or even tripling berthing capacity.
- Container shipping, the fastest growing of Vancouver’s business segments (up4.4% in 2018 and 11% in 2017) has a dwell time (time of offloading to removal from port property) of 4 – 6 days. By comparison Los Angeles and Long Beach average 3 days. Additionally, ships are getting bigger and bigger, and making increased demands for shore side real estate that is already in very short supply at Vancouver.
- It’s going to get more difficult, much more difficult. Consider Walmart’s three mega container ships – China to California in 5 days; 15,000 TEUs, 207 foot beam (too big for Panama or Suez), longer than a US aircraft carrier, crew of 13, a bridge higher that a 10 storey building and its own cargo cranes – 11 of them that can offload in less than two hours. Vancouver simply does not have even close to that capacity Its first trip was in 2006. The ship cost US$ 145 million plus silicone paint that saves 317,000 gallons of diesel per annum.
Our project improves the fluidity (efficiency) and performance of the transportation system as detailed our overview statement here. We have identified cost offsets exceeding $30 billion, three times the estimated cost of the project, being $10 billion. Additionally, we have begun to accumulate annual efficiencies in the supply chain approaching $100 million.